President Trump was presented with a great opportunity on Saturday to take the off-ramp from his war on Iran. After threatening Iran that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” Trump managed to get a two week pause in the war with the intervention of the Pakistani government.
A window opened to end this illegal war. Vice President Vance traveled to Pakistan to negotiate with a high-level Iranian delegation and from press reporting progress was made on many issues.
Unfortunately, after a month and a half of war, where tens of billions of dollars have been spent, every US base in the region is either damaged or destroyed, and dozens of military aircraft have been lost, President Trump did not take the off-ramp. He hit the accelerator.
After 21 hours of negotiations, the talks blew up, reportedly because the US side again insisted that Iran turn over its enriched uranium, destroy its nuclear facilities, and never enrich uranium again. This may be the “maximalist” approach favored by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but there is no reason for the US to make such demands.
So the Pakistan meeting was a waste of time – and likely the whole ceasefire was a ploy to buy time for the US and Israeli side to re-group and re-load.
Immediately after the talks ended in failure, an increasingly volatile Trump increased his threats against Iran. Over the past weeks he has alternated between insisting that the Strait of Hormuz is unimportant to the United States and demanding that the Strait be opened immediately.
Then yesterday he announced – via his social media account – that the United States military would start blockading Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Any ship departing from an Iranian port would risk being boarded, inspected, and possibly seized.
Iran’s restricting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices soaring, along with the price of fertilizer and other related products. Inflation is increasing in the US. Global markets are reeling. Trump further restricting traffic in and out of the Persian Gulf with his own blockade will only accelerate this process. It is like fighting a fire with gasoline.
And if the Houthis in Yemen close the Red Sea in response to Trump’s blockade of Iran’s blockade, we could even see a global economic depression.
There is a feeling that President Trump is flailing around while becoming increasingly volatile. He expected that the Europeans, the Japanese, and the South Koreans would join his efforts to force open the Strait, but instead they decided to make their own deals with Tehran and pay the transit fee. The rest of the world does not want war with Iran. Only the Trump Administration and Netanyahu want the war.
The petrodollar is taking a hit, as payments for Strait of Hormuz passage are paid in Chinese yuan. The dollar is being challenged as the global reserve currency as the US global empire itself is being challenged in real time.
This is time to look for and take that off-ramp. However, the US President seems to be moving in the opposite direction. Military equipment is being rapidly airlifted to the Middle East and another US carrier group is nearing the region as well. China has warned the US against interfering in its trade with Iran.
A major escalation is brewing and Congress still cannot find its voice.